Поставит ли Уоррен Баффет новый антирекорд
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Поставит ли Уоррен Баффет новый антирекорд
С 1988 года, когда акции Berkshire Hathaway Inc. начали торговаться на NYSE, только однажды компания Уоррена Баффета уступала по доходности индексу S&P 500 более чем пять месяцев подряд — с февраля по июль 2005 года.
Некоторые чрезвычайные ситуации на мировых рынках приводили Баффетта к длинным полосам неудач. Таблица выше показывает наиболее заметные из них, среди которых пузырь доткомов 2000 года, финансовый кризис 2008 года и ситуация вокруг госдолга США 2011 года. Потери в чрезвычайных ситуациях продолжаются и в 2013, когда США в очередной раз столкнулись с закрытием правительства и проблемой поднятия потолка госдолга.
Частота неудачных периодов у Berkshire постоянно растёт в последние годы. До первой 4-месячной полосы неудач прошло восемь лет, затем ещё дважды по 4 месяца за следующие 18 лет, после чего они начали повторяться каждые 2-3 года и стали более длительными.
Несмотря на свою репутацию рыночного гуру долгосрочных инвестиций, Баффетт, если рассматривать месячные интервалы, только в 51 проценте случаев обгоняет по доходности индекс S&P 500, что лишь немногим лучше, чем вероятность выигрыша при игре в орлянку.
Но этот 1 процент и даёт возможность наращивать прибыль, как снежный ком, в течение долгого времени. Ежемесячный 51 процент побед превращается в 55 процентов ежеквартально и 67 процентов ежегодно. В конечном счёте Баффет обычно побеждает, но на краткосрочных периодах его кривая доходности имеет большую волатильность.
Либо мы в ближайшее время увидим рекордно длинную полосу проигрышей Уоррена Баффета в соревновании с S&P 500, либо акции Berkshire Hathaway всё-таки обгонят индекс. Время покажет.
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Рекорд пока не побил, но в октябре индекс обогнал Баффета по доходности почти в три раза — 4,4% против 1,5%. Это был пятый месяц подряд. S&P весь октябрь рос почти безоткатно, такой рынок практически невозможно обогнать. Когда случится коррекция, вот тогда и посмотрим.wanderer wrote:как там Баффет, побил рекорд?
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