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ЦБ походу определился чем пожертвовать для выхода из стагфляции. Сперва снизят инфляцию насколько получится, а потом уж будут рубль снова ослаблять для стимулирования экономического роста.

Индекс PMI сферы услуг России от банка HSBC в апреле вновь упал — до 46,8 пункта с 47,7 пункта в марте и 50,8 пункта в феврале. Даже ниже, чем в производственном секторе. Составной PMI, объединяющий сектор услуг и производственный, свалился до [b]5-летнего минимума[/b] — 47,6 пункта.

Согласно апрельскому исследованию банка HSBC деловая активность снижалась в четырех из шести анализируемых субсекторах сферы услуг РФ,
при этом лидировали субсектора "почта/телекоммуникации" и "финансовое посредничество". Субсектор "транспорт/хранение" в апреле стал единственным
сегментом сферы услуг РФ, где был зафиксирован рост.

По данным опроса, в апреле на фоне снижения деловой активности продолжилось падение объемов новых заказов в российской сфере услуг. При этом объёмы новых заказов сокращаются уже второй месяц подряд, что наблюдается в российской экономике впервые за последние четыре года. Более того, темпы этого сокращения в апреле были самыми быстрыми с июля 2009 года. Объемы новых заказов в промсекторе РФ в апреле снижались пятый месяц подряд, а общий объём новых заказов в обрабатывающих отраслях и сфере услуг РФ в апреле падал самыми быстрыми с мая 2009 года темпами. Количество рабочих мест в сфере услуг РФ в апреле продолжило снижаться, как и в обрабатывающих секторах.

[b]energizer[/b], некто Максим Орешкин (директор департамента долгосрочного стратегического планирования минфина) считает — по информации Интерфакса — что "первые экономические данные по итогам апреля свидетельствуют о слабой экономической динамике: зафиксированы слабые показатели по выработке электроэнергии, грузоперевозкам и добыче газа. Индикаторы деловой активности также не добавляют оптимизма. Всё указывает на то, что по итогам второго квартала ВВП снизится (к уровню прошлого квартала с исключенной сезонностью) второй раз подряд". Ранее он же заявлял, что, по мнению минфина, во втором квартале экономика РФ может вступить в техническую рецессию. Если уж минфин заговорил о рецессии, то плохо.

Может не всё так плохо? Вот ОЭСР и МВФ [url=http://top.rbc.ru/economics/06/05/2014/922290.shtml]оптимистичны[/url] и не ожидают отрицательного роста экономики России

Вышедший вчера апрельский индекс производственной активности ([url=http://calvera.ru/forum/viewtopic.php?t=279]PMI[/url]) России составил 48,5.

[attachment=1]PMI_Russia.png[/attachment]

Значение вновь оказалось ниже 50, что, впрочем, было вполне ожидаемо. Таким образом, производственная активность продолжила снижаться уже шестой месяц подряд, а если отбросить случайный всплеск в октябре прошлого года, то снижение длится уже больше трех кварталов.

А [url=http://info.minfin.ru/gdp.php]вот[/url] красивые картинки по динамике ВВП России, нарисованные по [url=http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/accounts]данным росстата[/url]. На картинках, к сожалению, нет данных за последний квартал 2013 года, хотя на сайте росстата они уже есть, и показывают, что ВВП продолжил расти как ни в чём не бывало.

[attachment=0]ВВП.png[/attachment]

Но что-то мне подсказывает, что никакие фокусы росстата дальше не помогут, и продолжит уверенно расти только желтая линия на втором графике (индекс-дефлятор).