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Аргентина в понедельник второй раз за последние 13 лет оказалась в состоянии технического дефолта, однако 30-дневная отсрочка платежей означает, что страна все еще может избежать формального банкротства. Есть высокая вероятность, что Буэнос-Айрес пойдет на уступки, чтобы вернуть доступ к международным рынкам капитала.

Власти Аргентины объявили, что 7 июля направят делегацию для встречи и переговоров с назначенным судом США юристом Дэниэлом Поллаком, сообщает The Wall Street Journal. Цель консультаций — разрешить спор между страной и небольшой группой ее кредиторов, задолженность перед которыми возникла после аргентинского дефолта в 2001 году.

В понедельник истек срок исполнения решения федерального суда Нью-Йорка о выплате двум хеджевым фондам — NML Capital и Aurelius — $1,5 млрд компенсации по дефолтным облигациям.

Кроме того, в понедельник Аргентина должна была выплатить проценты уже по новым гособлигациям на сумму $539 млн. Однако суд США постановил, что сначала должна быть погашена задолженность перед хедж-фондами, а уже потом — эти проценты.

При этом хедж-фонд Elliott Management под управлением миллиардера Пола Сингера (NML является его частью) заявил, что власти Аргентины уклоняются от переговоров.

Независимые аналитики также сочли, что позиция Аргентины не отличается ясностью. "Власти Аргентины по-прежнему посылают смешанные сигналы о желании вести переговоры", — отметил руководитель отдела HSBC по исследованию рынков с фиксированным доходом в Латинской Америке Гордиан Кемен.

Инвесторы считают, что Аргентина просто не может позволить себе еще один дефолт, поскольку он окончательно подорвет экономику страны. По мнению аналитиков, в Аргентине в этом году началась рецессия из-за галопирующей инфляции и дефицита американских долларов. Золотовалютные резервы аргентинского ЦБ достигли минимума за 7,5 года — $29 млрд.

В 2001 году на фоне экономического коллапса Аргентина пережила аналогичный дефолт — тогда правительство оказалось не в состоянии выплачивать долги кредиторам. В общей сложности сумма затронутого неисполнением госдолга составила $95 млрд, и аргентинский дефолт на тот момент был рекордным в мировой истории.

При реструктуризации долга в 2005 году Аргентина обменяла старые бумаги на новые с дисконтом от 75% до 79% (по 25-29 центов за доллар). В 2010 году она повторила подобное предложение кредиторам, владевшим старыми облигациями. Держатели долга получили индексированные по ВВП облигации: чем быстрее росла экономика страны, тем больше получали кредиторы.