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intelligent investor · Post by **intelligent investor** » 30.12.2013{, 14:26}

Как известно, в любой сделке всегда есть как минимум две стороны — покупатель и продавец. Что происходит, когда покупателей на рынке больше, чем продавцов? Правильно, происходит рост цен. А если покупателей намного больше, в разы? Тогда цены теряют связь с реальностью, начинается эйфория, приводящая к надуванию пузырей за счёт неоправданного спекулятивного завышения цен. А что происходит, когда на рынке практически не остаётся желающих продать, зато есть толпа, сметающая всё подряд и по любым ценам? Вот пара картинок для размышления:

: Соотношение быков и медведей на рынке акций США

Процент быков на рынке акций США сейчас максимальный с 2007 года, а процент медведей — минимальный с 1987 года. Таким образом, разница между кол-вом быков и медведей (bull-bear spread) сейчас на максимуме за всю историю наблюдений (по данным американской ассоциации индивидуальных инвесторов AAII).

: Bull-bear spread достиг исторического максимума

wanderer · Post by **wanderer** » 30.12.2013{, 15:11}

Нужно учесть постоянный приток свеженапечатанных денег, в конечном итоге поступающих как на счета корпораций, так и на фондовый рынок. С такой подпиткой можно ещё долго ждать серьёзной коррекции. Да и значения на представленных графиках пока не выглядят ужасающими.

intelligent investor · Post by **intelligent investor** » 30.12.2013{, 16:06}

wanderer, деньги ФРС могут только усилить дисбаланс, вырезав с рынка последних медведей. У кого будете покупать тогда?
Кстати, стоит помнить ещё один момент — на рынке выигрывают единицы, а проигрывает толпа. Стратегия "делай как все", на мой взгляд, самая убыточная среди прочих. Сейчас все покупают или хотят купить...

wanderer · Post by **wanderer** » 30.12.2013{, 16:43}

intelligent investor, весь прошедший год разные аналитеги пугали народ неминуемым обвалом на фондовом рынке, потому что рынок очень сильно вырос. Уже и год закончился, а рынок опять на новых максимумах. Согласен, что коррекции не избежать, я лишь хочу обратить внимание, что она не обязательно начнется завтра, возможно придется ещё долго ждать.

intelligent investor · Post by **intelligent investor** » 30.12.2013{, 16:50}

wanderer wrote:Согласен, что коррекции не избежать, я лишь хочу обратить внимание, что она не обязательно начнется завтра, возможно придется ещё долго ждать.

Разве я сказал, что завтра начнётся коррекция?

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