Стоимость страховки от дефолта США подошла к максимумам 2011 года

[wanderer]

В последнее время было сказано много слов о том, чем нынешний кризис госдолга США похож на аналогичный от 2011 года. Например, что стоимость годовых CDS практически достигла максимумов 2011 года. Теперь об отличиях... Спред между годовыми и пятилетними CDS по абсолютному значению превзошёл величину 2011 года, что отражает более серьёзные опасения дефолта по краткосрочным облигациям США.

Стоимость страховки от дефолта США

Посмотрели на картинку? А теперь облегчённо вздохнули и идём дальше покупать акции. Фьючерс на индекс S&P на данный момент растёт на 1%. Всё будет хорошо... но не у всех :twisted:

[intelligent investor]

Из американских бондов в последнее время вышло довольно большое количество денег, не зря же цены на них так упали. А куда этим деньгам деваться? Так называемых "безопасных гаваней" не осталось в мире. Вот частично эти деньги и перетекают в рынок акций, частично в сырьё. Похоже, даже на развивающиеся рынки денежек подбросили, ибо тяжеловесы ММВБ (газпром, сбербанк, лукойл и т.п.) растут как на дрожжах. Ещё не так давно хоть немного приподнять газпром могли только суперпозитивные новости, а вчера больше 3% роста за день, за неделю вообще 10%, и это всё без новостей.

Так что удивляться росту на фондовых рынках не стоит. Хотя лично я очень не рекомендую входить сейчас в рынок акций, ибо слишком взрывоопасная ситуация: можем рухнуть в любой момент, а можем вырасти ещё на 10%-15%.

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